We tried for weeks and weeks to get an interview with Vestergaard-Frandsen. They declined. We wanted to hear about their LifeStraw project in Kakamega, Kenya. We would have liked to hear their opinion on why one can gain carbon credits for sale when the calculations are based on a “suppressed demand”, meaning that you get credits just by asking a bunch of people if they would do something else if they had money and time enough.
It’s like asking a commuter in a gridlock: If you had time and money enough would you like to skip the endless quees every day?
Well, the method is valid in the Voluntary Carbon Credit Market. Actually almost half of 119 project is using “suppressed demand” to calculate how many carbon credits they can get out of it.
25% – 38% or 29 %
Just yesterday – three days before the film is about to be aired for the first time in National Danish Television, DR1 Vestergaard-Frandsen have contacted various journalist with a so-called fact-sheet. And now it gets really interesting.
After almost endless mail-communication with the “Aid-Giant”, we were told that various international and national surveys as to how many actually is boiling their water (in real life – not in the suppressed demand-therory) the correct figure was 38 %. We have several other surveys talking about around 25 %.
Now – in the new statement from Vestergaard-Frandsen it gets really interesting. Gone is the 38 % from previous e-mails. Now the rate is 29 %. On top of that comes the “suppressed demand” making the total almost 80 %. (The way to make as many carbon credits as possible)
Here is what Vestergaard-Frandsen now claim:
• Calculations for boiling rates are based on the fact that 79.6 percent of all residents surveyed
either boil water or would choose to boil water if they had the time and resources to do so. This
includes 29 percent of people who currently boil water, a percentage which falls within the
range of the globally recognized Demographic and Health Survey for Kenya which
estimates boiling rates of 25%-38% depending on whether the resident lives in a rural or urban
setting. (Reference: http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FR229/FR229.pdf)
According the above mentioned report it is stated very clearly that boiling rates in rural Kenya is between 24-25 % and up to 38 % in urban areas.
So how can Vestergaard-Frandsen now do a calculation of their own stating that 29 % of the people in Western Kenya boils their water.
A true mystery.